Baseball Forecaster Toolbox https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/t680 Runboard| Baseball Forecaster Toolbox en-us Fri, 29 Mar 2024 12:24:04 +0000 Fri, 29 Mar 2024 12:24:04 +0000 https://www.runboard.com/ rssfeeds_managingeditor@runboard.com (Runboard.com RSS feeds managing editor) rssfeeds_webmaster@runboard.com (Runboard.com RSS feeds webmaster) akBBS 60 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10188,from=rss#post10188https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10188,from=rss#post10188quote:merkin wrote: are u kissing ur self?nondisclosed_email@example.com (Monkey51)Sat, 08 Apr 2006 20:41:16 +0000 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10187,from=rss#post10187https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10187,from=rss#post10187nondisclosed_email@example.com (merkin)Fri, 07 Apr 2006 19:18:56 +0000 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10186,from=rss#post10186https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10186,from=rss#post10186quote:merkin wrote: you can be my susan sarandon =D but im NOT wearing the garters don't think so..sorry..nondisclosed_email@example.com (Monkey51)Fri, 07 Apr 2006 00:16:41 +0000 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10185,from=rss#post10185https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10185,from=rss#post10185you can be my susan sarandon =D but im NOT wearing the garters nondisclosed_email@example.com (merkin)Thu, 06 Apr 2006 23:21:03 +0000 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10184,from=rss#post10184https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10184,from=rss#post10184too geeky...sealhugger's flower is saved..it was wilting due to no water..i like the 715 cups..they're going into the cup collection..shit i need an orange shrine..oh dam..i'm during into the chick in bull durham. FUCK! nondisclosed_email@example.com (Monkey51)Thu, 06 Apr 2006 23:14:56 +0000 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10183,from=rss#post10183https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10183,from=rss#post10183Contact Rate as a Leading Indicator It follows intuitively that the more often a batter makes contact with the ball, the higher the likelihood that he will hit safely. Not rocket science here, but good to see that the numbers do bear this out: .................................................................. Batting Average Contact Rate.................................2000............2001 0% - 60%.......................................... .143............ .170 61% - 65%....................................... .212............ .228 66% - 70%....................................... .250............ .233 71% - 75%....................................... .262............ .255 76% - 80%....................................... .263............ .259 81% - 85%....................................... .275............ .277 86% - 90%....................................... .293............ .278 Over 90%...........................................294............ .291 Batting Eye and Power We often ignore the batting eye ratio when evaluating power because so many batters achieve their lofty HR numbers by opening up their swing, thereby increasing their strikeout totals and depressing their eye ratio. However, this path to power success is a riskier one. During the four-year study period, any batter who slammed 30 HRs in a season had less than a 3 in 10 chance of improving his power skills in the following year. But by adding in the eye ratios of each batter, the power decline can be better defined... .......................................................................................... YEAR 2 Batting eye....................................PX increased............PX declined Less than 0.50.............................. 13%.................................... 87% 0.50 - 0.99....................................... 24%.................................... 76% 1.00 and over.................................31%.................................... 69% Batters with lower eye ratios were more likely to experience a power drop-off in the year following a 30-HR campaign. We can use this information to our advantage when tracking a batter's power trends from year to year. Here are the various scenarios and explanations: Power increases and batting eye increases: This is the most favorable scenario. The batter is seeing the ball better, exhibiting improved plate discipline, and the end result is an improvement in his power skills. These power surges are often long-term. Power increases and batting eye decreases: The most likely scenario when a batter displays a spike in power. He opens up his swing and begins to drive the ball, the fallout often being an increase in strikeouts and a drop in batting average. The danger is that opposing pitchers often figure out that they do not have to give him anything good to hit. These batters are prone to prolonged streaks and slumps. Power decreases and batting eye increases: This scenario occurs when a batter is trying to become more selective at the plate, often in response to a slump. In most cases, the power outage is short-term and the skills eventually return. Power decreases and batting eye decreases: The least favorable scenario. The batter is slumping, but rather than working on being more selective at the plate, he begins to press, chase bad pitches, and the slump deepens. Large chunks of seasons can be lost when this scenario occurs. nondisclosed_email@example.com (merkin)Thu, 06 Apr 2006 23:12:28 +0000 Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10182,from=rss#post10182https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10182,from=rss#post10182Batting Toolbox Batting Eye as a Leading Indicator The raw ability to distinguish between balls and strikes — strike zone judgment — is one of the single best leading indicators for future batting performance. Batting eye (walks / strikeouts) can be used to project future potential in batting average and other skills gauges as well. Research findings: 1. There is a high correlation between a batter’s eye ratio and his batting average.   .................................................................. Batting Average Batting Eye.................................... 1998............1999............2000............2001 0.00 - 0.25....................................... .251............ .257............ .253............ .240 0.26 - 0.50....................................... .261............ .269............ .268............ .257 0.51 - 0.75....................................... .271............ .277............ .273............ .264 0.76 - 1.00....................................... .283............ .283............ .289............ .277 1.01 and over..................................292............ .299............ .306............ .304   2. Any batter with an eye ratio over 1.00 has about a 1% chance of hitting under .250 over 500 at bats. 3. Of all .300 hitters, those with ratios of at least 1.00 have a 65% chance of repeating as .300 hitters. Those with ratios under 1.00 have less than a 50% chance of repeating. 4. Sub-.250 batters with eye ratios under 1.00 are not likely to mature into .300 hitters the following year. Only 12% of those with ratios between 0.50 and 0.99, and only 4% of those with ratios under 0.50 will hit .300 in year #2. 5. Batters with eye ratios under 0.50 are a high risk group. They may hit over .300 at some point in their careers (some batters can hack their way to anything), but pitchers eventually figure out that they do not have to give these free-swingers anything good to hit. At that point, it takes a large scale adjustment on the part of the batter to return to the .300 plateau. In a study covering 1995-2000,...there were only 37 batters that had hit .300 or better with an eye ratio of 0.50 or less over at least 300 AB in a single season. Of this group, 30% exhibited the unique ability to accomplish this feat on a consistent basis. For the other 70%, a .300-plus BA and sub-0.50 eye ratio was a short-term aberration. nondisclosed_email@example.com (merkin)Thu, 06 Apr 2006 23:11:48 +0000 Baseball Forecaster Toolboxhttps://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10181,from=rss#post10181https://boardsfgiantsfans.runboard.com/p10181,from=rss#post10181GREAT BOOK Its a stat book, but it tries to determine and quantify the SKILLS below the stats... I will give a couple examples of their stats....nondisclosed_email@example.com (merkin)Thu, 06 Apr 2006 23:10:56 +0000