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Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


GREAT BOOK

Its a stat book, but it tries to determine and quantify the SKILLS below the stats...

I will give a couple examples of their stats....

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"...the best evaluation of players is subjective judgment...The real baseball world is inevitably going to be hundreds of times more complicated than the model that we construct...." -Bill James
4/6/2006, 11:10 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


Batting Toolbox

Batting Eye as a Leading Indicator

The raw ability to distinguish between balls and strikes — strike zone judgment — is one of the single best leading indicators for future batting performance. Batting eye (walks / strikeouts) can be used to project future potential in batting average and other skills gauges as well. Research findings:

1. There is a high correlation between a batter’s eye ratio and his batting average.

 

.................................................................. Batting Average

Batting Eye.................................... [sign in to see URL]

[sign in to see URL] - [sign in to see URL]....................................... .251............ .257............ .253............ .240

[sign in to see URL] - [sign in to see URL]....................................... .261............ .269............ .268............ .257

[sign in to see URL] - [sign in to see URL]....................................... .271............ .277............ .273............ .264

[sign in to see URL] - [sign in to see URL]....................................... .283............ .283............ .289............ .277

[sign in to see URL] and [sign in to see URL]............ .299............ .306............ .304

 

2. Any batter with an eye ratio over [sign in to see URL] has about a 1% chance of hitting under .250 over 500 at bats.

3. Of all .300 hitters, those with ratios of at least [sign in to see URL] have a 65% chance of repeating as .300 hitters. Those with ratios under [sign in to see URL] have less than a 50% chance of repeating.

4. [sign in to see URL] batters with eye ratios under [sign in to see URL] are not likely to mature into .300 hitters the following year. Only 12% of those with ratios between [sign in to see URL] and [sign in to see URL], and only 4% of those with ratios under [sign in to see URL] will hit .300 in year #2.

5. Batters with eye ratios under [sign in to see URL] are a high risk group. They may hit over .300 at some point in their careers (some batters can hack their way to anything), but pitchers eventually figure out that they do not have to give these free-swingers anything good to hit. At that point, it takes a large scale adjustment on the part of the batter to return to the .300 plateau.

In a study covering 1995-2000,...there were only 37 batters that had hit .300 or better with an eye ratio of [sign in to see URL] or less over at least 300 AB in a single season. Of this group, 30% exhibited the unique ability to accomplish this feat on a consistent basis. For the other 70%, a .300-plus BA and [sign in to see URL] eye ratio was a short-term aberration.



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"...the best evaluation of players is subjective judgment...The real baseball world is inevitably going to be hundreds of times more complicated than the model that we construct...." -Bill James
4/6/2006, 11:11 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


Contact Rate as a Leading Indicator

It follows intuitively that the more often a batter makes contact with the ball, the higher the likelihood that he will hit safely. Not rocket science here, but good to see that the numbers do bear this out:

.................................................................. Batting Average

Contact [sign in to see URL]

0% - 60%.......................................... .143............ .170

61% - 65%....................................... .212............ .228

66% - 70%....................................... .250............ .233

71% - 75%....................................... .262............ .255

76% - 80%....................................... .263............ .259

81% - 85%....................................... .275............ .277

86% - 90%....................................... .293............ .278

Over 90%...........................................294............ .291

Batting Eye and Power

We often ignore the batting eye ratio when evaluating power because so many batters achieve their lofty HR numbers by opening up their swing, thereby increasing their strikeout totals and depressing their eye ratio. However, this path to power success is a riskier one.

During the four-year study period, any batter who slammed 30 HRs in a season had less than a 3 in 10 chance of improving his power skills in the following year. But by adding in the eye ratios of each batter, the power decline can be better defined...

.......................................................................................... YEAR 2

Batting [sign in to see URL] [sign in to see URL] declined

Less than [sign in to see URL].............................. 13%.................................... 87%

[sign in to see URL] - [sign in to see URL]....................................... 24%.................................... 76%

[sign in to see URL] and [sign in to see URL]%.................................... 69%

Batters with lower eye ratios were more likely to experience a power drop-off in the year following a 30-HR campaign. We can use this information to our advantage when tracking a batter's power trends from year to year. Here are the various scenarios and explanations:

Power increases and batting eye increases: This is the most favorable scenario. The batter is seeing the ball better, exhibiting improved plate discipline, and the end result is an improvement in his power skills. These power surges are often long-term.

Power increases and batting eye decreases: The most likely scenario when a batter displays a spike in power. He opens up his swing and begins to drive the ball, the fallout often being an increase in strikeouts and a drop in batting average. The danger is that opposing pitchers often figure out that they do not have to give him anything good to hit. These batters are prone to prolonged streaks and slumps.

Power decreases and batting eye increases: This scenario occurs when a batter is trying to become more selective at the plate, often in response to a slump. In most cases, the power outage is short-term and the skills eventually return.

Power decreases and batting eye decreases: The least favorable scenario. The batter is slumping, but rather than working on being more selective at the plate, he begins to press, chase bad pitches, and the slump deepens. Large chunks of seasons can be lost when this scenario occurs.



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"...the best evaluation of players is subjective judgment...The real baseball world is inevitably going to be hundreds of times more complicated than the model that we construct...." -Bill James
4/6/2006, 11:12 pm Link to this post   
 
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posticon Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


too [sign in to see URL]'s flower is [sign in to see URL] was wilting due to no [sign in to see URL] like the 715 [sign in to see URL]'re going into the cup [sign in to see URL] i need an orange [sign in to see URL] [sign in to see URL]'m during into the chick in bull durham. !@#$! emoticon

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Hamels started toward the dugout after what he thought was a strike. Lincecum didn't get the call & buzzed ump Dana DeMuth w. a fastball that slammed off the backstop & then froze Hamels w. another 3rd strike. 4/28/10 Timmy the ump killer.
4/6/2006, 11:14 pm Link to this post
 
merkin Profile
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Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


you can be my susan sarandon =D
but im NOT wearing the garters


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"...the best evaluation of players is subjective judgment...The real baseball world is inevitably going to be hundreds of times more complicated than the model that we construct...." -Bill James
4/6/2006, 11:21 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


quote:

merkin wrote:

you can be my susan sarandon =D
but im NOT wearing the garters



don't think [sign in to see URL]..

---
Hamels started toward the dugout after what he thought was a strike. Lincecum didn't get the call & buzzed ump Dana DeMuth w. a fastball that slammed off the backstop & then froze Hamels w. another 3rd strike. 4/28/10 Timmy the ump killer.
4/7/2006, 12:16 am Link to this post
 
merkin Profile
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Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


emoticon

---
"...the best evaluation of players is subjective judgment...The real baseball world is inevitably going to be hundreds of times more complicated than the model that we construct...." -Bill James
4/7/2006, 7:18 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Baseball Forecaster Toolbox


quote:

merkin wrote:

emoticon



are u kissing ur self?

---
Hamels started toward the dugout after what he thought was a strike. Lincecum didn't get the call & buzzed ump Dana DeMuth w. a fastball that slammed off the backstop & then froze Hamels w. another 3rd strike. 4/28/10 Timmy the ump killer.
4/8/2006, 8:41 pm Link to this post
 


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