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Jack Flash1 Profile
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Keep Lowry


Don't trade Lowry unless you can get a nice return for him. There simply are not any good pitchers close to FA, and if any come [sign in to see URL] will be very expensive. Lowry is cheap, signed through 2010 and has only played 3 1/2 years. The kid has plenty of time to get better on the k/bb ratio. He will be plenty valuable to some team in a good trade for the Giants. If the offers are all low ball right [sign in to see URL] onto him and try to trade him at the deadline or end of season. Lowry is at least a #3 on many teams in [sign in to see URL] a #4 on a top rotation like the Giants or Pods.

Last edited by Jack Flash1, 1/28/2008, 2:16 pm
1/28/2008, 2:15 pm Link to this post   
 
FATALFART Profile
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Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


lowry for encarnacion would be fine
1/28/2008, 10:15 pm Link to this post   
 
giantc Profile
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


quote:

There's a good comparison between Bedard and Lowry here.



If you don't say so yourself.

Bedard's peripherals are far superior to Lowry's. Lowry's best season was a few years back and he has been okay since -- Bedard was dominant last season and his K:BB ratio for the last two season has been 3:1 and 4:1, while Lowry has floundered around a 1:1 ratio. This stat worries me about Lowry b/c very few pitchers have success with such poor K:BB ratios.

I like Lowry fine, but he is a back of the rotation starter, while Bedard has gotten progressively better over his career.

I would take a 25-year old Encarnacion in a hearbeat for Lowry. His .800 OPS the last two years at third base would be something that the Giants have not had for years.

Encarnacion also actually hit better on the road last year so his numbers were not helped by Cincy's small park.
1/28/2008, 10:56 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


Brute: please dont compare Bedard and Lowry, because the talent and potential is not even close.... Bedard K's more and walks much less



6thday: im not saying I agree with the trade for the M's long term success, but their ownership is tired of losing and Bavasi knew he had to add a top notch starter or he would be looking for a job.... their offense should score enough runs, but the loss of Guillen will hurt a lot because he was their best hitter last season



that trade wouldnt make sense for a team that isnt one piece away from the playoffs but for the M's it did
1/28/2008, 11:52 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


If the Giants were able to acquire EE from the Reds for Lowry where would he hit in the line up? Would it move Rowand to the 4 spot, EE the 5 spot, and Molina to the 6 spot?
1/28/2008, 11:55 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


when I read that Bochy wants Winn and Molina in the 3rd and 4th spots I laughed and cried at the same time



this is going to be one pathetic lineup
1/28/2008, 11:57 pm Link to this post   
 
Bhaakon Profile
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Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


Two other important notes on Bedard/Noah:

1) Bedard has improved every season, Noah had a serious junior slump and two injury-shortened seasons. Even if their career numbers were similar (IMO they're not, Bedard's are better), a player on the upswing appears to be (and probably is) a much more projectable/dependable investment than a guy whose development appears to have stalled.

2) Bedard plays in a more talented league featuring a DH. Even if, as you say Brute, Bedard is unlikely to repeat his stellar 2007, a regression to his 2006 season would still leave him at least as good as Noah in his best season (which as has been pointed out, was 3 years ago).
1/29/2008, 12:05 am Link to this post   
 
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


First, let's dispell the first myth. The difference between the 'more' and 'less' talented leagues?

AL: .270/.338/.423
NL: .266/.334/.422

That's hardly a huge [sign in to see URL] .004 difference in OPS doesn't make me feel like AL stats are that much different than NL.

Now, let's not forget that Bedard's best year, his last, was also injury shortened. How was it shortened? An oblique [sign in to see URL]. the same injury that has hampered Lowry.

Now, say the Giants had gone ahead and shut down Lowry after he injured himself in that start against San Diego in August, as the O's (smartly) did with Bedard. If that had happened, Lowry would've finished with his career best ERA of [sign in to see URL] in a hefty 135.2 innings, and it was something he'd done consistently even with those peripherals.

If the Giants had allowed Lowry that (or forced him into it), then Lowry's career looks more like an injury blip in 2006 against an overall improving trend. That one month that bumped his 2007 ERA two-thirds of a run made all the difference.

Meanwhile, I stand by my feeling that Bedard had a career year, and is more likely to regress significantly. Look at career stats, and they have similar walk rates ([sign in to see URL] BB/9IP vs [sign in to see URL] BB/9IP for Lowry). They also have similar hit rates ([sign in to see URL] H/9IP vs [sign in to see URL] H/9IP for Lowry). The main difference in career peripherals is K's ([sign in to see URL] K/9IP vs [sign in to see URL] K/9IP). That's a significant difference, but it's not as if all the differences are so huge.

I stand by my comparison. Bedard is better, yes, but he's not significantly so, especially in terms of value. They are BOTH coming off of an [sign in to see URL] only difference there is that we don't know how it'll affect Bedard. Lowry is younger, and is a longer commitment. And, oh, he's at a fixed price, and not going to have to deal with arbitration.


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1/29/2008, 1:24 am Link to this post   
 
Bhaakon Profile
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


quote:

First, let's dispell the first myth. The difference between the 'more' and 'less' talented leagues?

AL: .270/.338/.423
NL: .266/.334/.422

That's hardly a huge [sign in to see URL] .004 difference in OPS doesn't make me feel like AL stats are that much different than NL.



All batters in the PCL combines for a .783* OPS in 2007. By your analysis, the PCL must have been more talented than either major league. (* approximately, I averaged the OPS of each team since I couldn't find a number for the entire league).

This number, if it were adjusted for parks and the DH, would tell you how the talent is distributed between hitters and pitchers in each league individually, it is useless for comparing talent between leagues.

quote:

Now, let's not forget that Bedard's best year, his last, was also injury shortened. How was it shortened? An oblique [sign in to see URL]. the same injury that has hampered Lowry.




Eh? I was under the impression that Noah was shut down with an elbow strain this season, not an oblique injury. Regardless, Bedard managed 26 more innings than Noah in 2007 and 37 more in 2006. Even if both pitchers suffered injuries, Bedard was tough/lucky/whatever enough to manage to stay in the lineup longer. Whether it was luck on Bedard's part or fragility on Noah's part is important, but unknown. What is known is that Bedard managed to stay healthier longer than Noah the last two seasons, and that fact affects his perception around the league and hence his trade value.

quote:

If the Giants had allowed Lowry that (or forced him into it), then Lowry's career looks more like an injury blip in 2006 against an overall improving trend. That one month that bumped his 2007 ERA two-thirds of a run made all the difference.




Or Noah's 2007 looks like a fluke ERA with an ongoing trend of increasingly poor peripherals. Whether you think the former or the later is the correct analysis is irrelevant, as long as the later is a reasonable analysis. If we're arguing trade value here, that kind of question mark, the type of question mark which Bedard does not have, is a huge dent to his trade value.

 
quote:

Look at career stats, and they have similar walk rates ([sign in to see URL] BB/9IP vs [sign in to see URL] BB/9IP for Lowry). They also have similar hit rates ([sign in to see URL] H/9IP vs [sign in to see URL] H/9IP for Lowry). The main difference in career peripherals is K's ([sign in to see URL] K/9IP vs [sign in to see URL] K/9IP). That's a significant difference, but it's not as if all the differences are so huge.



[sign in to see URL] K/9 is a huge margin. Every pitcher who cleared 100 IP last season finished between [sign in to see URL] (Bedard) and [sign in to see URL] (Trachsel) K/9, [sign in to see URL] is almost exactly a third of that spread. I wish I could find my of DIPS spreadsheet to do a better analysis, but I'm pretty certain that qualifies as a huge difference. Particularly since Noah isn't picking up any ground on Bedard in walk rate or HR rate.

At the end of the day, Bedard is 1) Better than Noah. 2) missed less time with injuries in recent years. 3) Has showed steady improvement with the peripherals to support it while Noah has stalled and seen his peripherals nosedive at a rate that would make Zito blush.

And speaking of Zito, just because the Giants ignored the warning signs before offering him a contract doesn't mean other teams are blind to the exact same warning signs in Noah. If anything, they're even more weary.

Last edited by Bhaakon, 1/29/2008, 1:50 pm
1/29/2008, 2:41 am Link to this post   
 
Avenge02 Profile
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Re: Bedard appears to be headed to Seattle; Can Lowry go to CIN?


Common sense dictates that there would be a greater k/9 discrepancy between the two pitchers if they both pitched in the same league. The fact that Lowry can pad his K stats facing pitchers 2-3 times a game, while Bedrad has to tackle DH’s, indicates that the current [sign in to see URL] K/9m margin is not truly indicative of their respective talents.
1/29/2008, 8:42 am Link to this post   
 


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