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MarcoPolo666 Profile
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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


quote:

Jamtoft wrote:

Now at the age of 27 people think he is going to hit any better than .260? He will strike out 150+ times if he gets 500 abs with maybe 15HRs. I would rather have Sweeney for cheap who I would bet if healthy hits at or above .300 with at least that many HRs. I don't get the hype on Ort.



With 500 ABs, the difference between hitting .260 and .300 is ... (drum roll please) : 20 hits. Yup, that's right, less than one hit a week.

I'd really like to see what Ort CAN do over a whole season, this time with a decent hitting coach. I'd rather the Giants use 2008 to try and locate youth that CAN play, instead of signing yet another vet to a one-year contract. Ort's performance isn't even close to AVG for a 1B. I don't care. The only reason he is playing 1B in 08 is because the Giants already have 5 outfielders. Finding out that Ort can be a decent 4th OF, or a bench RF/LF/1B is worth playing him all year in a year when they will suck anyhow. If he get 500 ABs and put up a line like : .260/.330/.420/.750 (which isn't outrageous), then I would consider it a success.

At least Ort has always shown than he can (and will) take a walk.

Last edited by MarcoPolo666, 1/3/2008, 5:43 pm


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Do not suggest trading for somebody for only two years (unless the Giants dump a crappy contract)
1/3/2008, 5:40 pm Link to this post   
 
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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


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MarcoPolo666 wrote:


I'd really like to see what Ort CAN do over a whole season, this time with a decent hitting coach. I'd rather the Giants use 2008 to try and locate youth that CAN play, instead of signing yet another vet to a one-year contract. Ort's performance isn't even close to AVG for a 1B. I don't care. The only reason he is playing 1B in 08 is because the Giants already have 5 outfielders. Finding out that Ort can be a decent 4th OF, or a bench RF/LF/1B is worth playing him all year in a year when they will suck anyhow. If he get 500 ABs and put up a line like : .260/.330/.420/.750 (which isn't outrageous), then I would consider it a success.

At least Ort has always shown than he can (and will) take a walk.



In the majors he has had 191 ab. In those at bats he walked only 10 times including only 7 walks in 157 ab last year. Plus in those 191 ab he has struck out 72 times. Thats a 10/73 BB/K rate!! He hasn't shown anything at the major league level except that last year he got 1 extra hit every other week. Which to me was just luck because his track record shows at best a .260 hitter.

I am all for developing young talent when you have it, but just to play a player because he is young I don't get. I would rather play Lance Niekro then Ort.
1/3/2008, 5:55 pm Link to this post   
 
MarcoPolo666 Profile
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Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


Dan had the worst isolated OBP of his career last year (while in the majors). Expecting that to continue is rather pessimistic. As an example, Feliz has a career (MLB) of .036 and minor league of .030. Ort had an isolated OBP last year in the majors of .030 (again, his worst ever). His career minor league isolated OBP is .076. So I'd like to see what he can do if given a starting job, and 500 PAs with a new batting instructor whose stated goal is "situational hitting". I'm hoping that will cut down on his Ks as well.

Concerning Niekro, I'd actually rather see him as the backup 1B in 2008 than most of the choices floated so far.

Last edited by MarcoPolo666, 1/3/2008, 10:28 pm


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Do not suggest trading for somebody for only two years (unless the Giants dump a crappy contract)
1/3/2008, 10:26 pm Link to this post   
 
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Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


Want to get really depressed?

I would bet $100 that Ort, Schierholtz, and Freddy Lewis don't even have the ceiling of RANDY FACKING WINN.

Do you think any of these jokers could hit .306 BA /.360 OBP / 849 OPS with 20HRs in a season? And 19 SBs? So, so sad. Sure, it was a banner year for him, but I don't see these kids reaching those kinds of "heights". Which really isn't that high.

We need to take a cue from mr beane and completely gut this team for some good young (unproven) talent.

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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


Ortmeier's September numbers
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
.345/.373/.527/.900 in 55 at bats when he got more regular playing time. I don't expect him to maintain that over the season but it's not unreasonable to expect around .290 from him and an OBP around .320 to .340 which not great is still a lot better then what Feliz gave us and for a fraction of the cost. Now Sweeney may give us better numbers but how much better and only for 1 year and where Ortmeier can grow into a better player Sweeney will only get worse.

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1/4/2008, 12:04 am Link to this post   
 
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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


quote:

losgigantes wrote:

Want to get really depressed?

I would bet $100 that Ort, Schierholtz, and Freddy Lewis don't even have the ceiling of RANDY FACKING WINN.

Do you think any of these jokers could hit .306 BA /.360 OBP / 849 OPS with 20HRs in a season? And 19 SBs? So, so sad. Sure, it was a banner year for him, but I don't see these kids reaching those kinds of "heights". Which really isn't that high.

We need to take a cue from mr beane and completely gut this team for some good young (unproven) talent.



Even if they produce around Randy Winn that's successfull considering they are cheap which leaves room to go and get an impact hitter.

A team only needs 2 impact hitters, you need to fill out the rest of the lineup with cheap capable bats.

That said, why can't Ortmeier, Sheirholtz, etc... be better then Randy Winn or be a superstar, because you say they wont. Well unless they are given an opportunity to succeed no one will ever know.

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1/4/2008, 12:09 am Link to this post   
 
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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


quote:

TheMalcontent wrote:

Ortmeier's September numbers
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
.345/.373/.527/.900 in 55 at bats when he got more regular playing time. I don't expect him to maintain that over the season but it's not unreasonable to expect around .290 from him and an OBP around .320 to .340 which not great is still a lot better then what Feliz gave us and for a fraction of the cost. .



I think that's a good prediction, Mal, except I think he'll probably hit closer to .270-ish.

I see Ort as turning into what Feliz *should* have been. A brain-dead hacker that actually runs into a few a week. It's essentially what Ort did this year. He didn't hit for great average or take a ton of walks, but he did hit for power. Feliz has never hit for consistent enough power. For a guy that hit about 20 HRs a year, he's got one shitty-ass SLG. If Ort can hit 65 XBH with 5-10 3Bs he's worth every penny of that league minimum.

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1/4/2008, 2:04 am Link to this post   
 
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Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


"What Feliz should have been" is good a for a 3B, but pretty mediocre at the cold corner.

Just Sayin'.
1/4/2008, 4:33 am Link to this post   
 
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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


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MarcoPolo666 wrote:

quote:

Freshbreaker wrote:

I don't think the Giants have the pieces to bring in quality minor leaguers who could be counted on to produce 1-2 years from now.

Who that we can afford to trade is going to bring back someone who might fill a spot in the lineup in 2009, 2010?



Winn and Lowry. Possibly Roberts, possibly Durham.

But not now, apparently. So, wait until June/July, hope that Winn does as well as last year, Lowry has a good showing, and Durham just has to have an "average" year (for him : OPS of .[sign in to see URL]). Roberts would have to have one of his "good" years (OPS over .700) and he'd still only be tradable to a team that absolutely needs a CF.

In July, it will depend on who needs what. A contending team who is hard up for a #3 pitcher (who is REALLY cheap for 3 years), or a 2B (with just a few months left on his contract), or a RF (if Winn is doing well) or whose CF just went on the DL ... well, a decent trade could be put together.



Winn-Only if the Giants paid about half his salary, and he would still need to accept the trade. He probably would if it were to a contender on the west coast. So maybe Winn + 5 million bucks gets you a Fred Lewis/Rajai type prospect. But then I have to ask myself, would I trade Fred or Rajai for Winn and 5 mil? probably not. They're duplicitous and Winn costs ten times the money.

Lowry-Yes, he could be moved for a piece IF he stays healthy, and duplicates last years success in the first half. My guess is he would already be elsewhere had he not been injured at the end of the season. Once again Sabean lost a chance to deal a player in July for far more than their actual value.

Roberts-I disagree, I don't think we could get a young player who will fill a lineup spot in 1-2 years for Roberts under any circumstances. Maybe what I am really saying is I don't think Sabean could/would pull that off, and that's a major part of the equation here.

I wont discuss Durham because IMO there is a better chance of the Giants contending this year than Ray making it back to an .800 OPS.

I think drafting is going to pay much better dividends and be a holistically better approach to returning to competition than trading. Increasing payroll in the short term, and drafting in the long term. We don't have the type of players to bring in experienced projectable minor leaguers with possible exception of Winn and Lowry. And I personally wouldn't trade Lowry unless it was a huge windfall in our favor.

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1/4/2008, 8:22 am Link to this post   
 
MarcoPolo666 Profile
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Re: Sabean do you WANT us to hate you?!?!


Winn - we wouldn't have to pay half his salary. He is not outrageously expensive anymore. He was when the contract was signed, but $8M is about the price for decent-fielding, slightly-below-average-offensively outfielders these days. Heck, llook at what Pierre got last year. Since he can play RF and CF, he's not as bad as you seem to think. And we weren't talking about bringing back Davis/Lews-type players (guys who can play the majors now) - we were talking about finding someone "who might fill a spot in the lineup in 2009, 2010". To me, that means guys who would be playing AAA (or AA) in 2008 with maybe a Sep callup.

Lowry - I agree 100% with Lowry. He'd really have to limit those walks in the first half.

Roberts - Yes, he would be the hardest to move, logically. But it really all depends on who needs a CF, and when they need it. And, of course, how well Roberts starts the new year. The Cards still don't have a CF, for example. And if some team's CF gets injured, there's a market. I'd be happy getting a decent bullpen prospect back for Roberts.

Durham- Don't be deluded enough to think that the Giants will contend in 2008. Unless by "contend" you mean "flirt with .490 and end in 3rd or 4th place". I think the best thing that could happen for the Giants is that Durham is .850-OPS hot (or better) through the first 3 -4 months, and that the team turns around and trades him in July. Durham and Lowry are the two players who COULD bring back the most in trade (depending on how they perform in the first half). While I don't think Lowry should be moved for anything that isn't quite tasty (we can keep him and wait another year - he still has value for us), Durham should absolutely be moved to a contender in July for good prospects. Hopefully to a team that has guys stacked up in the minors at 1B or 3B. I'd rather take a AA or AAA player who is decent than a compensation-round draft pick.

And I was thinking that the pitchers could have better (individual) records this year even if they only pitch the same as last year. With Rowand in CF and Bonds NOT in LF, the OF defense is going to be a lot better. Well, providing Lewis doesn't get much playing time. And of course, NOT having Mr Happy at third could be a regression, depending on who they get to fill the spot.

Last edited by MarcoPolo666, 1/4/2008, 1:11 pm


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Do not suggest trading for somebody for only two years (unless the Giants dump a crappy contract)
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