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hrhbalzac Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


quote:

Bhaakon wrote:

quote:


What do you think about Mike Hampton's contract?





*****
What's my opinion of Hampton's contract? What the !@#$ do you think is my opinion of it? I think it was !@#$ horseshit! Put that in, I don't !@#$—opinion of his contract? Jesus Christ, he got eight years and 121 million out of us! What the !@#$ do you mean what is my opinion of his contract? How can you ask me a question like that, what is my opinion of his contract? Jesus Christ, he got eight years! Jesus Christ! I'm !@#$ pissed off to spend this kind of !@#$ money, and you ask me my opinion of his contract? Jesus Christ! That's a tough question to ask me, isn't it? What is my opinion of his contract?...Well, I didn't give you a good answer because I'm mad, but I mean, that's a tough question to ask me right now, what is my opinion of his contract? I mean, you want me to tell you what my opinion of his contract [sign in to see URL]'s right! Jesus Christ! Guy gets 121 million from us. !@#$, I mean I don't want to, I don't mean to get pissed off or anything like that but, you know, you ask me my opinion. I mean, he signed a hell of a deal, he got eight years, he got, what, almost one and a quarter million dollars?...Eight years! So what the hell more can you say about it? I didn't mean to get mad or anything like that but god damn, you ask me my opinion of his contract.

Last edited by hrhbalzac, 12/29/2006, 1:38 am


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12/29/2006, 1:31 am Link to this post   
 
Bhaakon Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


No, I didn't ask you.
12/29/2006, 1:35 am Link to this post   
 
hrhbalzac Profile
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My question to those against the Zito deal


Yes, but I have his proxy

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12/29/2006, 1:41 am Link to this post   
 
MiddleRaven Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


Funny coincidence. Take a look at Mike Hampton's stats prior to signing that ridiculous contract and compare them to Zito's before we gave him his ridiculous contract:

Hampton '00: Age 27, 217 IP, 151K/99BB, 194 Hits, [sign in to see URL] ERA
Zito '06: Age 28, 221 IP, 151K/99BB, 211 Hits, [sign in to see URL] ERA

Aside from the ERA, they're almost bloody identical. Look at the walks and [sign in to see URL] ARE identical! Worse yet, look at baseballreference's most comparable pitcher for Zito through Age 28: MIKE HAMPTON.

EVERYBODY PANIC!
12/29/2006, 1:42 am Link to this post   
 
Jason86 Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


quote:

Cain43 wrote:

Would you rather have Zito at 7/126 or the likes of Meche, Lilly, and Suppan for 4/40+ to 5/50+?

Obviously they could have chosen to avoid either route but that wasn't plausible with this ownership and GM.



I would rather of had Schmidty for the 15 a year he got. I hope Zito does well.

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12/29/2006, 4:22 am Link to this post   
 
Freshbreaker Profile
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My question to those against the Zito deal


Schmidt has noticeably declined over the last two years, and he has been getting injured more frequently. Both scenarios are risky IMO. 8 years is rediculous, and surely by year 7 he will be an average pitcher at best, but my hope is that we can get 6 very good years out of him. And there is some truth to the fact that contracts will continue to escalate over the life of Zito's contract, and that it may become less impactful due to inflation. That's the best we can hope for.

Man i was just checking out the biggest contracts in baseball and drooled when I saw Pujols' deal is 6/100. What a steal.

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12/29/2006, 7:42 am Link to this post   
 
Bhaakon Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


quote:

Schmidt has noticeably declined over the last two years



Zito has noticeably declined over the last three years.
12/29/2006, 4:30 pm Link to this post   
 
gillette12 Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


quote:

MiddleRaven wrote:

I would take Lilly for 4 years, 40M in a heartbeat. Aside from one bad injury year in '05, he's been a bit more comparable to Zito lately than you'd think.

2006
Lilly: 181 IP, 160K/81BB, 179 Hits
Zito: 221 IP, 151K/99BB, 211 Hits

Zito pitched more innings, but that can be attributed to the A's management more than durability, as Lilly made roughly the same number of starts.

Lilly struck out more per inning, and walked less. They both allowed close to the same number of hits per inning. Sure, Lilly is a year and a half older, but he signed without that pesky $136 million contract.




you neglected to compare records or era of zito and lilly there.
12/29/2006, 6:29 pm Link to this post
 
MiddleRaven Profile
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Re: My question to those against the Zito deal


quote:

gillette12 wrote:

quote:

MiddleRaven wrote:

I would take Lilly for 4 years, 40M in a heartbeat. Aside from one bad injury year in '05, he's been a bit more comparable to Zito lately than you'd think.

2006
Lilly: 181 IP, 160K/81BB, 179 Hits
Zito: 221 IP, 151K/99BB, 211 Hits

Zito pitched more innings, but that can be attributed to the A's management more than durability, as Lilly made roughly the same number of starts.

Lilly struck out more per inning, and walked less. They both allowed close to the same number of hits per inning. Sure, Lilly is a year and a half older, but he signed without that pesky $136 million contract.




you neglected to compare records or era of zito and lilly there.



Records are way too dependent on the team. They have SOME relation to a pitcher's ability, for example, but Zito's been pitching on a much better team, with a stronger, lights-out bullpen behind him and in a park where there's an extraordinary amount of foul territory - of course he's going to have more wins. Even IF you have to look at [sign in to see URL] went 16-10, and Lilly 15-13. Not a very big difference there, and the factors above can certainly account for those.

ERA? Lilly: [sign in to see URL], Zito [sign in to see URL]. Zito was in a much more pitcher friendly park, and Lilly was in a tougher division. Pitcher's don't have an ability to consistently only scatter hits when they're unimportant. Sometimes the people you put on base score, and sometimes they don't.

Once a ball is put in play (excluding homers), a pitcher has very little control over it. Sometimes it's caught for an out, sometimes it's not. In fact, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is something which most pitchers have very little control over. League average is generally around .290. One year a pitcher could have .230 and the next .340. Looking at every pitcher, the only people who have some consistency and control over what happens from one year to the next are knuckleball pitchers and extreme groundball pitchers. Defense has something to do with it, but not nearly as much as you'd think.

Some years the hits turn into outs more than others (low BABIP) and you'll have a much lower ERA than you should. Got out of a lot of tight spots, so to speak. [sign in to see URL] so much. If you're looking for a way to quantify luck, BABIP is generally it. The less balls you put in play the better, and Zito doesn't strike out enough guys and walks too many to have that luxury.

His ERA could be great next year, or ala Morris - could be bad. I have some faith he'll have a good year with the Giants. A flyball pitcher in a pitchers park is nice, and he's pitching in a weaker league - and certainly a weaker division. Zito is genuinely a better player than Lilly. There is little arguing that. Still, the difference between the two isn't as much as you'd like for the $85 million difference in contracts.

An interesting article is this:
[sign in to see URL]

They take a look at Defense Independent Pitching Statistics, or only things a pitcher CAN control. It shows to be a much better predictor of ERA or future success than anything else.
12/29/2006, 7:07 pm Link to this post   
 


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